Goals are typically a hallmark of the Premier League. However, could this midweek round see fewer of them?Liverpool return to action after the international break to face Merseyside rivals Everton in what could be a tense affair.Liverpool vs EvertonOddsOver 2.5 goals1.73Under 2.5 goals2.10Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.A Historical Trend Emerges in the Merseyside DerbyLiverpool’s home games have been interesting affairs this season. Six of the last seven have seen over 2.5 goals. A healthy 64% of their Premier League home games this season have seen over 2.5 goals.It’s worth noting, however, that their home games tend to average fewer goals than their away ones. There has been an average of 3 goals per game at Anfield in the Premier League. That’s compared with an average of 3.6 on the road.This tells us that games at Anfield are likely to be slightly lower-scoring. That could owe to the opposition’s hesitation to attack there. Visiting teams are well aware of the challenge Anfield presents and often adopt a more defensive approach. That’s underlined by the fact Liverpool average the second-highest possession percentage per game in Premier League home games (62.4%).That’s unlikely to be any different against Everton, who will come to make things difficult. They have a strong track record on their side to suggest they will manage this successfully as well. An incredible 11 of the last 15 meetings between these two sides saw under 2.5 goals. This could be attributed to the tense nature of derby matches.There’s more than just points on the line here, there’s local pride to think about too. Liverpool also have a proud unbeaten home record in front of fans against Everton to protect. The Toffees haven’t won at Anfield in front of a crowd since 1999.It’s actually been at Anfield where most of those low-scoring affairs have taken place. Six of the last seven head-to-heads at Anfield saw under 2.5 goals. Another interesting angle is that all six of those saw just one side score.In his second stint as Everton’s boss, David Moyes took the Toffees to Anfield 12 times in his first Goodison Park reign. Eight of those 12 games also saw under 2.5 goals. Everton’s away league games this season have averaged a league-low 2.07 goals per game too. There’s some solid history to suggest the unders approach could be the right one to take here.What Other Games Could Provide Under 2.5 Goals Value?It might be useful to target sides who are playing a team with extra recovery time when backing the unders. Arsenal vs Fulham is one midweek clash which could follow a similar pattern. Fulham have a tricky FA Cup tie against Crystal Palace on Saturday. Most of their focus will be on that game, but a potentially rotated side could make things difficult at the Emirates.That rings especially true with the Gunners still struggling for attacking reinforcements. With so many teams competing for the European places, Fulham need a result to keep pace. That will almost certainly lead to an incredibly cautious approach. The reverse followed a similar pattern, where Fulham amassed a pitiful xG of 0.14 in a 1-1 draw.{“type”:”footballco-bet-borg”,”data”:{}}Wolves vs West Ham could be another premier pick on the under 2.5 goals market. Seven of West Ham’s last eight games saw unders land. That was also the case in six of Wolves’ last nine. In fact, no Premier League side has averaged fewer goals than West Ham’s 1.75 across their last eight games.Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United has the hallmarks of a low-scoring game. There have only been three goals scored across Forest’s last three at home. A joint-league low five of their home games this season have seen over 2.5 goals.Additionally, none of their home games against the traditional ‘big six’ have seen over 2.5 goals. Forest are also involved in FA Cup action this weekend.+
