NBA 2023–24 Season: The NBA schedule for the entire 2023–24 season is already available, thus it’s time to assess the upcoming win–loss records.
You’ll find predictions for each NBA 2023–24 Season team below, informed by the regular-season over/under at FanDuel’s Sportsbook and the rule that the league’s total for wins must equal its total for losses.
But before you read, keep in mind that the NBA is now firmly in the parity age. Thirteen of FanDuel’s thirty-win totals fall between 40 and 50. Last season, just six clubs achieved above 50 victories. The best net rating (net points per 100 possessions) during 2022–23 was under seven.
There is at least one-star player on every team in the league. Two or more are the norm. If Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner became hot enough to beat the Golden State Warriors on any given night, no one would be shocked.
The projections made here will represent the talented league of today.
Win-Loss Predictions for Teams Following NBA 2023–24 Season
Check out the list of Teams Following the NBA 2023–24 Season.
1) Atlanta Hawks (43-39)
The Atlanta Hawks eventually dealt John Collins in a deal that amounted to little more than a payroll dump after years of rumours. NBA teams shouldn’t often lose players for free, but Atlanta could be okay going ahead.
In each of Collins’ previous two seasons, the Hawks’ net rating suffered when he was on the court, so his departure should give Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu more playing time. A more versatile starting forward duo composed of De’Andre Hunter and Saddiq Bey could also be beneficial.
Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, though, will ultimately decide whether this group succeeds or fails.
Last season, the Hawks’ plus-1.6 points per 100 possessions average while both players were on the court was subpar. They must exert far more complete control over those minutes if they hope to go closer to 50 victories.
2) Boston Celtics (52-30)
Marcus Smart has been the Boston Celtics’ pulsating centre for a number of years, despite the cliche. When he was on the court the last nine years, Boston was significantly superior due to his playmaking and point-of-attack defence.
At the very least, replacing him with the frequently injured Kristaps Porziis—who is currently battling with plantar fasciitis ahead of training camp—is a bit of a bet on the cohesiveness of the squad.
Derrick White, though, is arguably a better player right now than Smart. To assist in filling those shoes as well, Malcolm Brogdon is still in the picture. And if Porziis can offer Boston 60 or more games, the Celtics’ offence ought to be much stronger.
It’s simple to imagine this club contending for the top seed in the East when you consider all of that and the fact that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are still active.
Actually, the parity noted in the introduction is the only factor that accounts for Boston’s performance below that over/under. In the NBA 2023–24 Season right now, there are a number of strong teams. It will be extremely difficult to reach the mid-50s in victories.
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3) Brooklyn Nets (41-41)
It wasn’t ideal for the Brooklyn Nets to lose all of James Harden, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Durant within the span of approximately a year, but they came out of that long, odd trip in good health.
In addition to the fantastic assets they obtained from all the big moves, Brooklyn also got guys who can keep it competitive in the near future.
Last year, the Nets were 7.1 points better than their opponents per 100 possessions when Nic Claxton and Cameron Johnson, a former Phoenix Sun, were paired together.
Additionally, there are a number of players on the roster, like Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O’Neale, who may be combined with those three to form some fascinating combinations that are virtually positionless.
Spencer Dinwiddie and Dennis Smith Jr. should have the opportunity to join such groupings as well since that would only be somewhat of a novelty if it prevented the team from completing plays.
However, if Ben Simmons can remain healthy and regain his playmaking abilities, the Nets won’t have to give up positional size or playmaking (and sure, this is a big “if”). In that (perhaps improbable) scenario, Brooklyn may aim for 50 victories.
4) Charlotte Hornets (34-48)
The Charlotte Hornets are still surrounded by some ambiguity.
P.J. Washington is still on the job. It’s difficult to predict what Miles Bridges, who will play this season on a $7.9 million qualifying offer, will provide them after sitting out the whole NBA 2022–2023 season while battling domestic abuse allegations, will give them. LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward, two of the team’s highest-paid players, have had trouble staying healthy for a large portion of the last three years.
Charlotte should at least be competitive if those two can contribute more than 60 games, Washington re-signs, Bridges performs at a level similar to that of 2021–2022, and Terry Rozier performs more consistently than he did in 2022–2023.
But there are a lot of presumptions there. Additionally, the Eastern Conference has improved greatly from previous years. The Hornets will likely require someone to exceed expectations in order to get closer to a 500 record.
Brandon Miller, a rookie wing, maybe the one in question. Charlotte’s chances will likely change significantly if he scores in the mid-teens and shoots around 40% from the three-point range.
5) Chicago Bulls (37-45)
After appearing in just 35 games in 2021–22 and missing the entirety of 2022–23, it appears like Lonzo Ball will miss another full season due to a knee ailment.
DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vuevi have enough offensive firepower for the Chicago Bulls, but without Ball to coordinate everything, they sometimes appear aimless.
When all three of the aforementioned players were active, they produced a lacklustre 113.4 points per 100 possessions, which placed them in the 39th percentile and put them in 24th place overall last season.
Except for a huge improvement from someone like Coby White or Patrick Williams, it’s impossible to imagine a group that is roughly the same suddenly being much better on that end of the floor.
Talent is talent anyway. The squad also includes players like Alex Caruso, Jevon Carter, Andre Drummond, and Torrey Craig who are good at filling up the gaps. The Bulls may not appear to be much better than a play-in team from the outside, but they can go above that total.
6) Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34)
The Cleveland Cavaliers created additional headlines this summer by adding Max Strus and Georges Niang, one year after trading for Donovan Mitchell.
Theoretically, those two will boost the Cavaliers’ shooting and offer some wing stability. The only position that didn’t feel rock solid last season was small forward.
Why then do they expect to lose in 2023–24 and take a tiny step back from 51 wins in 2022–23?
To begin with, the East need to be powerful once more. Furthermore, it’s not hard to imagine teams like the Miami Heat, who won 44 games from 2022 to 2023, the New York Knicks, who won 47 games, and the Atlanta Hawks, who won 41 games, to name a few, improving their win total.
Some individuals may not think Strus is as much of an upgrade over Cedi Osman as they believe. The bench may also suffer from Ricky Rubio’s departure (who “decided to stop my professional activity to take care of my mental health”) and a lack of depth in the middle.
That obviously does not put this behind a lock. When Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen were on the court in 2022–2023, Cleveland was plus–10.2 points per 100 possessions. Next season, Garland and Mobley may both do better.
The 50-win club for the NBA 2023–24 season appears to be a small bunch, prompting some challenging selections.
7) Dallas Mavericks (48-34)
The temptation to add the Dallas Mavericks to this exercise’s relatively elite 50-win club is great.
Despite the limited sample size, Dallas had plus-13.1 points per 100 possessions in 2022–2023 with Tim Hardaway Jr., Kyrie Irving, and Luka Doni all present.
And now, a more substantial supporting cast will surround that potent offensive trio.
Dante Exum had a real breakthrough season for Partizan Belgrade in 2022–2023 which should give him a lot of confidence when he returns to the NBA. Reggie Bullock was not as reliable of a forward option as Grant Williams. Those who share the court with Seth Curry will benefit from his shooting’s ability to open up defences.
Dallas may potentially be a remote title challenger in the NBA 2023–24 season if either (or both) Jaden Hardy and Josh Green make significant strides.
However, it goes without saying that Doni and Irving would be more important to that status than anything else. One of the finest offensive players in the world, the former will once again be a candidate for the MVP award (he has been in the top 10 in the vote for the past four seasons).
In any given series if both are available, the Mavericks will have a legitimate shot at winning.
8) Denver Nuggets (52-30)
The Denver Nuggets are notorious for slacking up in the late stages of the previous season, so it may sound crazy to predict the reigning champs would lose one more game than they did in 2022–23. Before they achieved their first team-wide championship, even.
The 52-win forecast is motivated by the West’s strength and depth as well as the possibility that Denver coasts once more.
Although it still shares the league’s top record with the Boston Celtics (spoiler alert), with them. Likewise, a “prove-it” trip a la the Golden State Warriors in 2015–16 wouldn’t be all that unexpected.
I’m not saying Denver can win 70 or more games, but it has faced a lot of the same doubters who criticised the Warriors when they won the NBA title in 2015, and Jamal Murray and Nikola Joki may be determined to disprove them.
Regardless of how the Nuggets approach the regular season, they’ll be among the top title candidates if those two, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are still available when the playoffs begin.
Denver ought to be overwhelming favourites if one or two of the young bench players like Peyton Watson, Christian Braun, or Jalen Pickett succeed.
9) Detroit Pistons (26-56)
There’s a good possibility the Detroit Pistons will beat the over/under if the Cade Cunningham who apparently destroyed Team USA in a scrimmage is able to play 70 or more games.
Cunningham will amass assists and have larger driving lanes than ever before if he plays in lines that feature shooting from Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Harris, and Alec Burks in some fashion (or all three at once).
Inexperienced guards like Jaden Ivey and Ausar Thompson, as well as a big guy like James Wiseman, are expected to make up a significant portion of this rotation. Detroit will therefore have to endure another season of defeats and setbacks.
That’s probably still acceptable at this stage of their reconstruction plan. It wouldn’t hurt to add another high overall choice, and years like these make it simpler to spot talents who will stick around.
Cunningham, Ivey, Thompson, and Jalen Duren lineups may be dominant in two or three years thanks in significant part to the principles they gain in the NBA 2023–24 season.
10) Golden State Warriors (50-32)
The Golden State Warriors starting lineup played fewer combined minutes because of Andrew Wiggins’ prolonged absence, yet it was still the top five-man group in basketball (at least by one metric).
The team of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney had the highest net rating of plus-21.9 out of all the teams that had played at least 100 minutes.
And now a bench led by Chris Paul will support that domination.
CP3 ought to absolutely dominate against backup defenders. Additionally, his playmaking will accelerate the respective growth of players like Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga.
The Warriors can still accomplish all of the aforementioned goals by correctly staggering the rotation, even if they start Paul in the starting five (he has started each of his 1,214 career games).
Having CP3 ready to replace Jordan Poole’s minutes, whichever head coach Steve Kerr wants to play it, is an obvious short-term improvement.
11) Houston Rockets (30-52)
On the acquisitions of Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to the Houston Rockets, the over/under and Dunks and Threes’ projected wins (the cumulative form of estimated plus-minus, one of the most dependable catch-all measures among NBA front offices) are both a touch higher than this projection.
The explanations are rather straightforward. At their prior jobs, VanVleet and Brooks were surrounded by much more seasoned supporting casts, so Houston’s young core may make their terrible shooting efficiency more obvious.
Even if 30 victories might initially appear dismal, that is still eight more than the previous year. And as has been mentioned, it will be difficult to make significant advances in the very competitive West.
In reality, an eight-win increase is rather significant, and in my opinion, the young players are more responsible for it than the newly signed free agents.
Although Brooks’ defence and VanVleet’s leadership should be helpful, the anticipated development of exciting young players like Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green, and Alperen Engün could have a greater impact.
That over/under is truly in danger if Amen Thompson’s playmaking is more NBA 2023–24 Season-ready than we think it is.
12) Indiana Pacers (38-44)
The Indiana Pacers shocked many observers and fans when they started 23-18, but Tyrese Haliburton’s injury caused them to fall precipitously in the standings.
An above-500 season is quite likely if he can remain healthy and Bruce Brown continues to perform as he did during the Denver Nuggets’ championship run.
Indiana boasts a rock-solid top four in Myles Turner and Buddy Hield, but the majority of the rest of the squad is relatively inexperienced.
The Pacers’ outlook would be very different if Bennedict Mathurin or Obi Toppin had a breakout season, but those bets don’t feel secure enough to go any higher with the projection than 38.
13) Los Angeles Clippers (47-35)
Any type of wager on the Los Angeles Clippers is challenging.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the team’s two finest players, have played an average of 40.3 and 47.3 games each year since joining the squad before the 2019–20 season.
And another year has passed since the supporting cast that has kept the squad afloat during all those absences.
If the Stars can play closer to 60 games and Russell Westbrook can cover in for many of the innings that two miss, this team is still capable of winning 50 games and contending for the title.
Giving them the benefit of the doubt is really difficult right now.
14) Los Angeles Lakers (48-34)
The Los Angeles Lakers required a significant portion of 2022–2023 to get going (or, maybe more precisely expressed, to reverse the Russell Westbrook trade), but once they did, they began to play like legitimate title contenders.
LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Austin Reaves played without Russ for the whole season, and despite the small sample size (just over 500 possessions), Los Angeles was up 19.9 points per 100 possessions.
Additionally, the shooting of players like D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, and Taurean Prince should keep those three in the running for a championship.
Naturally, beating the reigning champions—who swept the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals—might need more than simply sticking with the plan.
This summer, Russell signed a very tradeable deal, so a transfer there may give them the edge. Another option may be a jump from a young talent like Max Christie. Perhaps Reaves can use another gear.
Whatever it is, Los Angeles requires a little bit more of a punch to go from contender to championship stage.
15) Memphis Grizzlies (48-34)
Ja Morant’s 25-game ban shouldn’t be a problem for the Memphis Grizzlies, even though Marcus Smart’s acquisition might likely assist.
In the regular season and postseason over the last two years, Memphis has improved by 7.9 points per 100 possessions when Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. play together. With all three players available, the club has a net rating of plus-7.2, which is just slightly higher.
It could be worthwhile to investigate the causes of that discrepancy in a different setting. Memphis has enough depth to dominate many of those first 25 games, which should put them in a strong position to go over that total.
16) Miami Heat (50-32)
Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, two starters for the Miami Heat from the June Finals squad, were gone. Josh Richardson and Thomas Bryant have been added, and although they might potentially help cover some holes, neither player seems like a lock to start for a team that is contending for the crown.
Of course, we could have made the same claim about Strus and Vincent six months prior, and the Heat’s system, culture, and ability to develop players would have disproven it.
It’s difficult to restrict the Heat because of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and the infrastructure that is already in place.
The expected addition of Damian Lillard, though, is what’s really pushing our forecast to go above 48.5 wins.
Actually, 50 victories could seem inadequate if that occurs.
Lillard seems to be the ideal complement to Butler and Bam thanks to his shot creativity and range far beyond the three-point line. And those two can assist in masking Lillard’s defensive shortcomings.
This forecast is a hypothetical underneath another hypothetical since, of course, he hasn’t arrived yet.
17) Milwaukee Bucks (50-32)
Only the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers have older average ages than the Milwaukee Bucks, who are now one of the NBA’s oldest teams.
And when you add specific player injury concerns to that, it’s simple to sense a little scepticism towards the over/under.
Over the previous four seasons, Giannis Antetokounmpo played in 63.5 games annually on average. Khris Middleton’s score throughout the same period is 57.3. Furthermore, despite the fact that Brook Lopez played 78 games and had perhaps his greatest season as a Buck in 2022–23, the 35-year-old Brook Lopez underwent back surgery in 2021–2022.
The team’s fifth-place net rating and first-round loss to the eighth-seeded Miami Heat may possibly have an impact on this prediction, despite the fact that they had a league-best 58 victories the previous season.
Despite all of that, it’s still easy to understand why the over/under is so high. One of the top three or four players in the world is on this squad, which also boasts continuity and synergy.
When Giannis and Lopez played on the same team as Jrue Holiday last year, Milwaukee was plus 15.6 points for every 100 possessions.
18) Minnesota Timberwolves (45-37)
Rudy Gobert’s move to the Minnesota Timberwolves was criticised the whole year.
Due to the injury to Karl-Anthony Towns and the fact that Rudy Gobert had his worst season since his rookie year (finishing below the 94th percentile in projected plus-minus for the first time since 2013–14), it was simple to support that perspective.
But once Mike Conley joined the club and Towns eventually made a recovery, the Wolves started to resemble the playoff squad that many had hoped for.
Denver Nuggets, the ultimate champion, defeated them in five games, although the series was close and Bruce Brown afterwards referred to Minnesota as the Nuggets’ most difficult postseason foe.
The return of Gobert, Towns, and Conley, along with Jaden McDaniels’ continued development, make this over seem like a reasonably safe wager.
It could come down to Anthony Edwards getting to 50 victories. In his 11 career postseason games, when he averaged 28.1 points, 4.0 assists, and 3.5 three-pointers, he has displayed all the qualities of a true superstar. If this version of him is still playing in the NBA 2023–24 season, 45 may appear to be a very cautious estimate.
19) New Orleans Pelicans (42-40)
The New Orleans Pelicans’ success (or lack thereof) is heavily reliant on Zion Williamson’s availability, as it has been throughout his career.
If he is able to play for the remainder of the season, New Orleans may challenge for the top seed in the West, like it did during the first few months of 2022-23.
Hence, the forecast of 42 victories.
But given the remainder of New Orleans’ roster, that forecast is accompanied by the qualifier “probably”. It is nearly guaranteed that CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram will average 20 points or more. He is a double-double machine, Jonas Valaniunas. One of the more adaptable defenders and underappreciated passers in the game is Larry Nance Jr. And Herbert Jones’ perimeter defence may make or break a game.
But Trey Murphy III is the primary factor in a Pelicans squad’s ability to perform better than anticipated in the absence of Zion. Over his last 15 games of 2022–23, Murphy averaged 21.7 points, 4.1 three-pointers, 1.6 steals, and 45.9% long-range shooting.
20) New York Knicks (48-34)
It was an unusual path taken by the New York Knicks to finish last season with the second-best offence in the NBA.
Their effective field goal percentage, which was 19th in the league, was more than offset by having the second-best offensive rebounding% in the league. And the majority of the men who made contributions to that are still alive.
The 367 players who played at least 500 minutes in 2022–23 were ranked third, eleventh, thirteenth, 92nd, and 104th in terms of offensive rebounds per 75 possessions, respectively. Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jericho Sims, Josh Hart, and Julius Randle all received high marks in this category.
With their brutal interior defence, the return of Jalen Brunson, and Quentin Grimes, and the addition of Donte DiVincenzo, it’s simple to see how the Knicks will win this game and surpass their 47 victories from the previous year.
RJ Barrett, who throughout the course of his four seasons has been one of the league’s least effective scorers, is probably the key to getting much more than that. If Barrett can significantly improve his shooting selection, New York could be able to reach 50 victories.
So these are the predictions for teams following NBA 2023–24 season. Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.
