This is the Italian’s best opportunity to get in the win column against last year’s US Open runner-up.If you listened to our first Tennis Bets Live Miami Open show, you know I gave out Matteo Berrettini to win Quarter 2 at +750 odds. If you decided to join me on that play, you really shouldn’t be doing much of anything with his quarterfinal showdown with Taylor Fritz. If anything, you should be looking to hedge with Fritz at -175 or so. However, if you didn’t get any futures down on Berrettini, I’d simply look to play the Italian to win this match. This one feels like a genuine coin flip, making it hard to understand why he’s available at +158 odds.While Fritz was one of the best players on the ATP Tour last year, he’s just 9-5 to start the 2025 season. He also doesn’t have many good wins to his name. The best one is probably a 7-5, 6-3 victory over Denis Shapovalov in the Round of 32 at this very tournament. Berrettini is only 9-6 in 2025, but he has wins over Novak Djokovic, Tallon Griekspoor, Gael Monfils and Alex de Minaur.When Berrettini is healthy and playing with confidence, there really isn’t much that separates him from Fritz. Fritz made the US Open final last year, but Berrettini made the Wimbledon final back in 2021. And it’s not like he’s some older, over-the-hill player; Berrettini is only five months older than Fritz and has a lot of high-level tennis left in him. Berrettini’s peak Elo rating is also 2072.3, which he achieved back in 2022. Fritz’s peak Elo rating is 2040.8, which he reached in 2023. The reason that’s relevant is that Berrettini, at his very best, has been as good as Fritz, if not better. Well, Berrettini sure looks like himself in 2025.This is just a match in which both guys are likely to hold serve rather easily, meaning we should see some long, hard-fought sets. Those matches, with sets that end with 7-5 or 7-6 scorelines, are more like 50-50 battles. But Berrettini’s odds suggest he only has a 38.76% chance of winning this match. That feels extremely low.Hosted by Tennis Channel’s Nick Monroe.Berrettini is also going to feel pretty good about the baseline battle in this one. Fritz has one of the best backhands on the planet, so he’s going to want to try and get into as many backhand-to-backhand exchanges as he can. But Berrettini will be happy to slice his backhand all over the court, as the slice is a powerful shot on these low-bouncing Miami courts.When looking at the other wing, Berrettini is going to have a massive advantage. The Italian’s booming forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court in this match.One of the main things you’re going to hear when looking into this matchup is that Fritz is 3-0 in tour-level matches against Berrettini. However, this is probably the first time these two have met in favorable conditions for the Italian. It’s also the first time they’ve met with Berrettini playing well and Fritz in questionable form.It’s also worth noting that Berrettini’s win over de Minaur was one in which he showed off some serious mental strength. After failing to serve out the match at 6-5, Berrettini went down 6-3 in the second-set tiebreaker. Instead of folding, he fought his way back against arguably the best fighter in tennis. It just feels like he has the right mindset coming into this one, and he realizes this is an opportunity to make a 1000-level final and do some damage in climbing the rankings.Pick: Berrettini ML (+158)
