Before each day’s play at the Miami Open, we’ll break down three must-see matches.Sabalenka and Collins know each other’s games well. Only one of them has figured out how to beat the other, though.Sabalenka is 6-0 against the American, dating back to their first meeting in 2018. Three of those wins have come at the US Open, and three of them have gone to a third set. Sabalenka and Collins both play with maximum aggression—swing-wise and sound-wise. But while Collins’ ground strokes are flat rifle shots that don’t have a ton of margin, Sabalenka’s are hit with more spin, margin, polish, and shape, but without sacrificing much pace. That has spelled the difference between the two in their matches.Along with her head-to-head edge, Sabalenka is also in better form. She’s 19-4 on the year, while Collins, who announced and rescinded her retirement in 2024, is just 5-3.But there is hope for the American, for three reasons. (1) In half of her losses to Sabalenka, her game has worked well enough to win her a set; (2) Collins is the defending champion in Miami, so the courts suit her and the fans will be behind her; and (3) While Sabalenka is the WTA’s No. 1 player, she has still has a habit, on occasion, of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Winner: SabalenkaA post shared by Tennis (@tennischannel)Fritz is 27 and Shapovalov 25, but there has always been a sense, at least to me, that they’ve measured themselves against each other. Despite being the younger of the two, the Canadian broke through earlier and won their first three meetings. Then Shapo had to watch as the American rose into the Top 10 at the same time that he was falling out of the Top 100. By 2023, after a lot of tight matches between the two, Fritz asserted his authority when he won both of their matches—one of which took place in Miami—in fairly routine, 6-4, 6-4 fashion.Then, last month, an unseeded Shapovalov ambushed a top-seeded Fritz in Dallas, coming back from a set down to win in a deciding tiebreaker. That victory, Shapo said, gave him a jolt of confidence that took him all the way to his first 500-level title. By tournament’s end, he was playing some of the best tennis of his career. He stayed hot at the 500 in Acapulco, where he made the semis.Fritz, by contrast, has had a disappointing 2025 so far, but he did look better in his opening win over Lorenzo Sonego, and he should be motivated to get in a decent result before the clay slog begins.These two both have top-tier serves and forehands. Shapovalov’s one-handed backhand can be more spectacular than Fritz’s two-hander, but it can also be less consistent, and it has always been a liability on the return. This will be a good test of both guys’ level as the Slam season starts. I’ll guess that Fritz’s consistency and motivation will win the day. Winner: FritzFritz will retain his No. 4 ranking after Miami regardless of how the event plays out. Matt FitzgeraldIt’s about time these two faced off. The 27-year-old American and the 20-year-old Frenchman are pretty far apart in age, but they couldn’t be closer in the rankings right now: Tiafoe is 17th, Fils is 18th.Despite already cracking the Top 20, Fils so far hasn’t had the breakout 2025 that seemed to be in the cards for him. He lost early in Melbourne, Rotterdam, and Dubai. But he began to round into form in Indian Wells, where he reached the quarterfinals and lost a thriller to Daniil Medvedev, 9-7 in a third-set tiebreaker.Tiafoe has also sputtered to start the year. In each his five tournaments, he has won one match, and lost the next; not the results we expect from a guy who nearly made the US Open final last summer. But he also looked better in a tight opening-round win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.The two will meet in the late afternoon in the Grandstand, which should be just the place to see them pit their high-flying athleticism against each other for the first time. Winner: TiafoeA post shared by Frances Tiafoe (@bigfoe1998)
